Mathematician Joachim Klement's prediction on the winner of the 2026 World Cup collapses
By OnzeActu · · 2 min read
Joachim Klement, renowned mathematician, has for the first time missed his prediction about the winner of the World Cup. His selection, the Netherlands, was eliminated in the round of 16 by Morocco.
The German mathematician Joachim Klement, renowned for his predictions on the winners of the Football World Cup, this time experienced an unexpected setback. For the 2026 World Cup, he had bet on the selection of the Netherlands, which he considered to be the “best football team to have never won the World Cup”. However, this prediction turned out to be false since the Dutch were eliminated in the round of 16 by Morocco (1-1 at the end of regulation time, 2-3 on penalties).
Image
Previously, Klement had succeeded in his predictions during the 2014, 2018 and 2022 editions, by respectively designating Germany, France then Argentina as champions. Its method is based on a “reconstruction analysis” integrating several criteria such as the level of wealth of the country, the popularity of football in this nation and a luck factor.
In an interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel, the statistician explained that he may have unconsciously chosen an improbable scenario in order to demonstrate that his forecasts are not infallible. This surprise elimination of the Netherlands by Morocco marks a turning point in its analyzes and underlines the unpredictability specific to football, even in the era of advanced statistics.