The Opta supercomputer assesses the chances of France and Morocco
By OnzeActu · · 5 min read
Opta projects France as favorite against Morocco for the quarter-final of the 2026 World Cup, with a 61.7% victory in regulation time and a 74% chance of qualifying.
Why it matters
Opta's projections underline France's position as favorites for the 2026 World Cup quarter-final against Morocco. With a 61.7% probability of victory in regulation time, this reflects not only the Blues' current form, but also their experience in major international competitions. The match is crucial for both teams, as it could determine France's future in this football World Cup.
Context
France, as world champions in 2018, have a rich history in the World Cup, while Morocco looks to prove itself on the world stage. Opta statistics, which take into account various factors, show that France has an advantage, but football remains unpredictable, especially in a knockout match.
Key points
- The Opta supercomputer assesses the chances of France and Morocco.
- Opta projects France as favorite against Morocco for the quarter-final of the 2026 World Cup, with a 61.7% victory in regulation time and a 74% chance of qualifying.
- Francia feature in the latest Coupe du Monde developments.
Beyond the simple result in regulation time, Opta also assesses the chances of qualifying for the semi-finals: the supercomputer gives a 74% probability that France will reach the semi-final of the 2026 World Cup, compared to 26% for Morocco. These figures reflect how the model combines factors such as team form, individual performances, previous confrontations and other statistical variables (Opta did not detail in the press release the exact weighting of each factor).
The 2026 World Cup takes place in the United States, Canada and Mexico, from June 11 to July 19. Argentina is the defending champion after its victory in the final of the 2022 tournament in Qatar, won on penalties against France after a 3-3 at the end of regulation time and extra time (4-2 on penalties).
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Opta's projections confirm the Blues' favorite status on paper, but they do not cancel out the uncertainty inherent in a knockout match. With a 22.1% probability of a draw after 90 minutes, the scenario of overtime and penalties remains entirely plausible, and teams deemed lower ranked have already reversed unfavorable situations over the years.
For supporters and followers of the tournament, these figures provide a useful statistical framework for evaluating the relative chances of the two selections, without prejudging the actual progress of the match. Opta provides probabilities, not certainties: football remains a sport where the performance of the day, refereeing decisions and the facts of the game can change everything.
See you this July 9 to find out if the projections are confirmed on the ground and if France will validate its status as big favorite against Morocco.
The rest
As the match takes place today, fans of both teams are eagerly awaiting the result. If France manages to qualify, it will continue its journey towards the semi-finals, while Morocco, with a probability of 26% of qualification, hopes to create a surprise. Individual performances and the tactics deployed by the coaches will be decisive for the final result.
Frequently asked questions
What are the probabilities of qualifying for the semi-finals of the 2026 World Cup?
Opta estimates that France has a 74% chance of qualifying for the semi-finals, compared to 26% for Morocco.
Who published the probability estimates for the France-Morocco match?
The probability estimates were published by the Opta supercomputer.
Why is Opta assessing teams' chances now?
Opta assesses the teams' chances ahead of the quarter-final of the 2026 World Championship, which takes place today, July 9.
What factors are taken into account by the Opta model?
Opta's model combines factors such as team form, individual performances, previous confrontations and other statistical variables.
What are the implications of
'a draw after 90 minutes according to Opta?
Opta assesses the probability of a draw after 90 minutes at 22.1%, which makes a scenario of extra time and penalties plausible.
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